Currencies steady after selloff, forint fragile
By Krisztina Than
BUDAPEST, Oct 24 (Reuters) -Central European currencies mostly traded slightly firmer on Thursday after a selloff in the previous session driven by jitters about the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The dollar got a boost as investors no longer expect an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a view that is reflected in rising Treasury yields.
The dollar was also supported by anticipation that Donald Trump could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and tariff policies are considered inflationary, which markets anticipate would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner currencies.
"There is a little bit of recovery in CEE3 today, euro/dollar is bouncing higher from the lows so there is some relief," said a Warsaw-based FX trader.
By 0838 GMT, the zloty EURPLN= was up 0.15% against the euro at 4.341, while the Hungarian forint EURHUF=, which has been the region's poorest performer with a 4.8% fall this year, was steady, hovering near its levels around 403 hit on Wednesday.
"Emerging market currencies weakened substantially yesterday while the dollar firmed," brokerage Equilor said in a note, adding that even though local markets in Hungary were closed, the forint also fell past 403 to the euro in illiquid trading, hitting its lowest level since January 2023.
The forint's weakness forced the National Bank of Hungary to pause its rate cuts at its meeting on Tuesday.
Even after cuts totalling 11.5 percentage points since May 2023, Hungary's benchmark interest rate at 6.5% is the highest in the European Union, with the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) heading for what could be an extended pause in rate cuts.
"Given the importance the NBH places on exchange rate developments, we continue to believe the level of the Forint continues to act as the 'binding constraint' on the pace of rate reduction," Goldman Sachs said in a note this week.
On Friday, ratings agency Standard and Poor's is expected to release its review of Hungary's debt ratings and the wait for that has kept investors cautious.
The Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.17% firmer at 25.23.
"The Czech crown is in slightly defensive mode, but the uncertainty before the US election is clearly affecting it significantly less than the forint or zloty. The currency pair thus remains in the 25.20-25.30 range EUR/CZK," CSOB analysts said in a note.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1025 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2300 | 25.2740 | +0.17% | -2.09% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 402.5500 | 402.8500 | +0.07% | -4.81% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3410 | 4.3475 | +0.15% | +0.08% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9734 | 4.9743 | +0.02% | +0.02% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9600 | 117.0600 | +0.09% | +0.24% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1639.87 | 1639.8100 | +0.00% | +15.97% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 74052.55 | 73846.09 | +0.28% | +22.16% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2270.39 | 2256.21 | +0.63% | -3.10% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17464.98 | 17442.24 | +0.13% | +13.62% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4440 | -0.0340 | +136bps | +2bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7670 | -0.0450 | +170bps | +0bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0430 | -0.0250 | +177bps | +2bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9660 | -0.1670 | +288bps | -11bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4520 | -0.0620 | +338bps | -2bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.8270 | -0.0510 | +355bps | -1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.82 | 3.57 | 3.43 | 4.11 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.85 | 6.20 | 6.46 | 6.40 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.68 | 5.26 | 4.83 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest; Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan Charlish in Warsaw., Editing by Barbara Lewis
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