Hungarian inflation lowest since 2021, Czech CPI stays on target
Adds Czech data, economists' reaction
Sept 10 (Reuters) -Hungary's headline inflation rate fell to a three-and-a-half year low in August while Czech price growth stagnated around the central bank's target, keeping the chance of further interest rate cuts on the table.
The Hungarian and Czech central banks have been the most aggressive in central Europe in easing monetary policy since last year but are slowing or pausing that loosening drive, with services price pressures one concern.
Before opting to keep interest rates unchanged in August, Hungary's central bank had delivered 15 consecutive cuts totalling 1,125 basis points. The main rate stands at 6.75%.
Data on Tuesday kept the option of further cuts open - along with pressure from the government to ease policy more - as it showed year-on-year inflation eased to 3.4% in August from 4.1% in July, coming in below a Reuters poll forecast of 3.6%.
It was the lowest rate since February 2021.
"Expectations of further rate cuts grew stronger after the publication of the data this morning, resulting in further weakening of the forint exchange rate," Erste Group Bank said.
"Paradoxically, it is the vulnerability of the domestic currency and increased volatility on the market that may deter the (central bank) from abandoning its cautious stance."
Economy Minister Marton Nagy told Inforadio late on Monday that the Hungarian bank had "won the fight with inflation", saying too restrictive a policy would hurt the economy.
The central bank has said further rate cuts would depend on the monetary policy of major central banks, developments in the domestic inflation outlook and changes in Hungary's risk perception.
Amid the price surges of recent years, Hungary's inflation scaled the EU's highest levels of more than 25%.
Czech inflation has also fallen from double-digit rates and has been within the central bank's 1 percentage point tolerance range around its 2% target this year.
The Czech central bank cut its main rate by 25 basis points in August after several 50-bp reductions. In total, it has cut 250 bps to take the main rate to 4.50%.
Data showed inflation stagnated at 2.2% year-on-year last month despite market and central bank expectations of a drop.
Services prices are still rising above 5%, but analysts said the data would not sour policymakers on more rate cuts.
"The inflation picture will probably not deter the (central bank) from cutting rates by 25 bps at its upcoming meeting in September," UniCredit economist Pavel Sobisek said.
"But it could raise a warning and threaten to postpone further steps until it sees prices in services stabilise."
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Krisztina Than in Budapest
Editing by Christina Fincher
Aset Terkait
Berita Terbaru
Pengungkapan: Entitas XM Group menyediakan layanan khusus eksekusi dan akses ke Fasilitas Trading Online kami, yang memungkinkan Anda untuk melihat dan/atau menggunakan konten yang tersedia pada atau melalui situs, yang tidak untuk mengubah atau memperluas, serta tidak mengubah atau memperluas hal tersebut. Akses dan penggunaan ini selalu sesuai dengan: (i) Syarat dan Ketentuan; (ii) Peringatan Risiko; dan (iii) Pengungkapan Penuh. Oleh karena itu, konten disediakan hanya sebagai informasi umum. Anda juga harus ketahui bahwa konten Fasilitas Trading Online kami bukan sebagai ajakan atau tawaran untuk untuk melakukan transaksi apa pun di pasar finansial. Trading di pasar finansial mana pun melibatkan tingkat risiko yang signifikan pada modal Anda.
Semua materi yang diterbitkan di Fasilitas Trading Online kami hanya untuk tujuan edukasi/informasi dan tidak boleh mengandung nasihat dan rekomendasi finansial, pajak investasi atau trading, catatan harga trading kami, penawaran, permintaan, transaksi dalam instrumen finansial apa pun atau promo finansial untuk Anda yang tidak diminta.
Konten pihak ketiga apa pun, serta konten yang disiapkan oleh XM, seperti opini, berita, riset, analisis, harga, informasi lain atau link ke situs pihak ketiga yang tersedia "sebagaimana adanya", sebagai komentar pasar umum dan bukan menjadi nasihat investasi. Sejauh konten apa pun ditafsirkan sebagai penelitian investasi, Anda harus memperhatikan dan menerima bahwa konten tersebut tidak dimaksudkan dan belum disiapkan sesuai dengan persyaratan hukum yang dirancang untuk mempromosikan kemandirian riset investasi dan dengan demikian akan dianggap sebagai komunikasi pemasaran di bawah hukum dan peraturan yang relevan. Mohon dipastikan bahwa Anda telah membaca dan memahami Notifikasi pada Riset Investasi Non-Independen dan Peringatan Risiko kami mengenai informasi di atas, yang dapat diakses disini.
