Turkey central bank expected to cut rates around November
Repeats Sept 13 story with no changes to text.
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=TRINT%3DECI for poll
Policy rate decision on Sept 19
ISTANBUL, Sept 13 (Reuters) -Turkey's central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at 50% until about November when a first cut is seen, according to a Reuters poll on Friday that suggested expectations have shifted to a slightly later easing cycle.
All 16 poll respondents expected the bank to hold rates at a policy meeting next week, which would mark the sixth straight month of steady policy after an aggressive tightening campaign that began in June of last year.
The one-week repo rate was seen dipping to 47% by year end, based on the median response of 14 economists, with their forecasts ranging from 45% to 50%. That compares to a year-end median forecast of 45% in the poll a month ago.
Annual inflation fell to 51.97% in August, mainly due to base effects, from a peak in May. A combination of tight monetary policy and a slowdown in domestic demand is expected to bring it to around 40% by year end.
Though the central bank has given few signals of when it intends to begin cutting, the poll showed it is expected to move as soon as October or as late as next year.
Three respondents picked October for the first rate cut, four chose November and another three chose December. Two predicted the bank would wait until the first quarter of next year before easing policy.
Compared to the August Reuters poll - when consensus for the first cut was centred on October or November - economists now also expect fewer cuts in general this year, the latest poll showed.
To tackle inflation that has soared for years, the central bank has raised its policy rate by 4,150 basis points in total since mid-2023, reversing a previous low-rates policy championed by President Tayyip Erdogan to boost economic growth.
The central bank will announce its next interest rate decision at 1100 GMT on Sept 19.
Analysts say it could hint more clearly at its expected policy path, and possibly adjust or even drop a past repeated pledge that it was prepared to tighten more as needed.
Last week, in an interview with Reuters, Central Bank Deputy Governor Hatice Karahan said Turkey's fiscal policy will be critical to ensure that inflation remains on its downward path now that aggressive interest rate hikes are beginning to yield results.
The bank expects inflation to fall to 38% and 14% at end-2024 and end-2025 respectively. In the medium term program, the government sees end-year inflation of 41.5%.
Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun and Susobhan Sarkar;
Editing by Daren Butler and Jonathan Spicer
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