US natgas rises more than 2% on warmer weather view
Recasts, adds comment and updates prices
By Rahul Paswan
Sept 19 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures settled up more than 2% onThursday on warmer-than-normal weather forecasts that could boost cooling demand and increase gas consumption by power generators to meet air conditioning needs.
That price increase came despite a federal report showing a slightly higher-than-expected weekly storage build last week.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.4 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at$2.348 permillion British thermal units (mmBtu), after dropping more than 2% earlier in the session.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 58 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 13.
That was above the 56-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 62 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 80 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
"The above normal temperatures definitely seems to be giving us a pop here," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, adding "there's still a lot of concern about the slow recovery of the Gulf of Mexico production."
Financial firm LSEG estimated 124 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks. The normal for this time of year is 89 CDDs. Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 99.8 billion cubic feet (bcfd) per day this week to 100.1 bcfd next week.
LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, at 101.7 bcfd this week to go up to 102.0 bcfd next week.
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.1 bcfd so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
The CEO of U.S. natural gas producer EQT Corp on Wednesday said U.S. prices for the fuel will remain below $3 per million British thermal units in the short term.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices edged higher on Thursday morning as a ramp-up in Norwegian maintenance curbed supply. NG/EU
Meanwhile, Chesapeake Energy's $7 billion acquisition of rival natural gas producer Southwestern Energy is expected to close early in the fourth quarter.
Week ended Sep 13 Actual | Week ended Sep 6 | Year ago Sep 13 | Five-year average Sep 13 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +58 | +40 | +62 | +80 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,445 | 3,387 | 3,251 | 3,171 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 8.6% | 9.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.26 | 2.34 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.78 | 10.21 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.22 | 13.3 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 20 | 19 | 12 | 18 | 58 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 124 | 132 | 125 | 123 | 89 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 144 | 151 | 137 | 141 | 147 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.1 | 101.7 | 102.0 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.1 | 109.8 | 109.6 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.4 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 42.1 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.5 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.4 | 77.8 | 77.9 | 79.4 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 99.8 | 100.1 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 20 | Week ended Sep 13 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 10 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 44 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.31 | 2.33 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.66 | 1.82 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.53 | 2.24 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.58 | 1.75 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.96 | 2.08 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.95 | 2.2 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.95 | 1.82 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.05 | 1.12 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.44 | 0.45 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 39.5 | 37.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 45.5 | 39.5 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 37 | 24.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 46.25 | 41 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 19 | 19.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 17.5 | 17.5 |
Reporting by Rahul Paswan and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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