Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 9 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% to a one-week low on Wednesday on expectations power generators would burn less gas after Hurricane Milton knocks out power to potentially millions of homes and businesses in Florida.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Milton will slam into the west coast of Florida as a major storm on Wednesday night before sweeping across the central part of the state on Thursday.

Milton has already caused about 48,000 homes and business to lose power in Florida. Those outages will add to the roughly 118,000 customers still without electric service in North Carolina and Georgia since Hurricane Helene moved inland after hitting Florida on Sept. 26.

In 2023, power generators in Florida burned a record 3.9 billion cubic feet per day of gas to keep the lights on for the state's roughly 11.5 million power customers, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and PowerOutage.us.

That means every 1 million in customer outages reduces the need to burn around 0.3 bcfd of gas on average.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.3 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $2.660 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Sept. 26 for a fourth day in a row.

That was the first time the contract dropped for four days in a row since late August. During that time, it was down about 11%.

One factor that has weighed on futures prices all year has been low spot or next-day prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana.

The spot market has traded below front-month futures for 168 out of 194 trading days so far this year, according to data from financial firm LSEG. Next-day prices at the Henry Hub were down about 5% to $2.39 per mmBtu for Wednesday.

Analysts have noted that so long as spot prices remain far enough below front-month futures to cover margin and storage costs, traders should be able to lock in arbitrage profits by buying spot gas, storing it and selling a futures contract.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 101.0 bcfd so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 96.0 bcfd this week to 97.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 12.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance, which will likely end around Oct. 10.

Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Daniel Wallis

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C