Crown, forint steady ahead of interest rate decisions
PRAGUE, Sept 20 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies steadied against the euro on Friday, with the Hungarian forint and Czech crown holding near recent levels ahead of central bank policy meetings next week that may deliver further interest rate cuts.
After mostly shrugging off the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to start its easing cycle with a larger than usual interest rate cut this week, focus was turned to central European policymakers.
Markets were pricing in chances of Hungarian and Czech rate-cutting cycles at meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
The forint EURHUF= was steady at 394.10 to the euro at 1022 GMT, sitting in the middle of recent trading ranges.
"We now expect the NBH to ease at both its September and October meetings, as opposed to only in October previously, on the back of more favourable global financial conditions," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Expected rate cuts by major central banks could create space to ease monetary conditions further in emerging markets, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) said in the minutes of its August 27 policy meeting released last week.
The bank had left its base rate steady at the European Union's highest level of 6.75% last month after 15 consecutive cuts worth a combined 1,125 basis points.
The Czech National Bank has also slowed it rate-cutting pace in an easing drive started last December. Markets see chances of another 25-basis-point cut, to bring the main rate to 4.25%, its lowest level since the end of 2021.
The crown EURCZK= was also steady at 25.096 per euro.
Czech bond yields were also little moved by the first estimates of the cost of the massive flooding in central Europe in the past week. The Czech Finance Ministry said on Thursday it would provide 30 billion crowns ($1.34 billion) to tackle flood damage under an amendment of its 2024 budget.
"We see relatively low impact to spreads," Sergey Dergachev, a portfolio manager at Union Investment, said.
"What we are monitoring is ... what will be the impact of those heavy floods on the political situation in those countries affected. We will have elections in Romania."
"And what will happen next week in Austria. Even though Austria is not (an emerging market), it's outcome is also very crucial for central Europe."
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= eased 0.1% to 4.2775 per euro while Romania's leu EURRON= was unchanged at 4.9745 to the euro.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1222 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0960 | 25.0990 | +0.01% | -1.57% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.1000 | 394.1000 | +0.00% | -2.77% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2775 | 4.2730 | -0.11% | +1.57% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9745 | 4.9745 | +0.00% | -0.00% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9600 | 117.0600 | +0.09% | +0.24% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1584.10 | 1584.0100 | +0.01% | +12.03% |
Budapest | .BUX | 72817.10 | 73084.05 | -0.37% | +20.12% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2298.16 | 2326.80 | -1.23% | -1.91% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17649.71 | 17629.06 | +0.12% | +14.82% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3930 | 0.1640 | +118bps | +16bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4110 | -0.0130 | +136bps | -2bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7830 | 0.0520 | +159bps | +5bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.7190 | 0.0870 | +250bps | +8bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.0480 | 0.0540 | +299bps | +5bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3610 | 0.0230 | +317bps | +2bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.80 | 3.41 | 3.10 | 4.30 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.09 | 5.69 | 5.27 | 6.44 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.76 | 5.36 | 4.73 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Karin Strohecker in London, Krisztina Than in Budapest and Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Louise Heavens
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