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Sweden's crown vulnerable but showing resilience

BUZZ-COMMENT-Sweden's crown vulnerable but showing resilience Sept 12 (Reuters) - The Swedish crown remains vulnerable but, despite a bearish backdrop, is beginning to show signs of resilience versus the euro, helped by technical factors . Falling Swedish inflation, 1.2% y/y CPIF in August, a deteriorating labour market and interest rate cuts abroad continue to support the Riksbank's dovish stance.
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Swedish inflation falls in August, sets stage for more rate cuts

UPDATE 3-Swedish inflation falls in August, sets stage for more rate cuts Swedish CPIF inflation falls 0.5% mo/mo, up 1.2% yr/yr Outcome just below analysts forecasts Inflation fall driven by lower energy prices Riksbank seen cutting rates later this month Recasts, adds analyst comment in paragraphs 8-9 STOCKHOLM, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Swedish inflation fell in August to land well below the Riksbank's target thanks to lower energy prices, setting the stage for the central bank to cut interest rate
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US dollar mixed after inflation report supports smaller Fed rate cut

FOREX-US dollar mixed after inflation report supports smaller Fed rate cut US core inflation rises 0.3% in August US dollar hits three-week high versus Swiss franc Dollar falls to lowest level since late December Fed funds futures lower odds of 50-basis-point cut this month Updates as of 3:27 p.m. ET/1927 GMT By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Chibuike Oguh NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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Sweden's crown in danger despite cloud support

BUZZ-COMMENT-Sweden's crown in danger despite cloud support Sept 10 (Reuters) - Following a EUR/SEK trend reversal on Aug. 30 the Swedish crown has been under increasing pressure and the outlook is dimming. The daily EUR/SEK chart is showing potential for back-to-back Ichimoku cloud failures and the cloud base line, 11.4615, has slowed the SEK fall. However, the market has broken above the 200-day moving average and eyes the 100-day average, currently at 11.4838. A close inside the Ichimoku clou
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Sweden's Riksbank could surprise the market

BUZZ-COMMENT-Sweden's Riksbank could surprise the market Sept 9 (Reuters) - A half-point interest rate cut shouldn’t be ruled out when the Riksbank holds its next policy meeting on Sept 24-25. Swedish inflation is low, core prices rose 1.7% in July - below the 2.0% Riksbank target, and a further drop in CPIF is expected when August inflation data is released later this week.
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Swedish crown on course to re-visit 2024 highs

BUZZ-COMMENT-Swedish crown on course to re-visit 2024 highs Aug 29 (Reuters) - A combination of bearish technical pointers for EUR/SEK and a market beginning to entertain the idea of a half-point rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September could help send the crown back to levels around 11.00-11.1000. A mixed bag of Swedish data, released early in the Thursday session, may have stalled the EUR/SEK fall around the 11.3130 level (new bear trend low) but the cross remains bearish on the day
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Three more Riksbank meetings and three more rate cuts

BUZZ-COMMENT-Three more Riksbank meetings and three more rate cuts Aug 28 (Reuters) - The stage is set for further cuts in Swedish interest rates before the year is out, with the three remaining policy meetings expected to deliver a total reduction of 75 basis points, taking the key rate to 2.75%. Swedish inflation is under control, there are signs of weakness in the labour market and the crown is benefitting from lower global interest rates.
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Swedish c.bank lowers key interest rate, sees more cuts this year

UPDATE 3-Sweden lowers key interest rate, sees more cuts this year Riksbank cuts policy rate as expected to 3.50% from 3.75% Says inflation risks have diminished, could speed up rate cuts Adds additional analyst, central bank comment, currency reaction By Simon Johnson STOCKHOLM, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Sweden's central bank lowered its key interest rate to 3.50% from 3.75% on Tuesday, as expected, and said it could speed up policy easing if price pressures do not pick up, holding out the possibility
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Swedish headline inflation edges up in July, still tame

UPDATE 2-Swedish headline inflation edges up in July, still tame Headline inflation 1.7% yr/yr up from 1.3% pvs month Inflation ex-energy 2.2% vs 2.3% in June Central bank likely to cut policy rate next week Adds background, graph STOCKHOLM, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Headline Swedish inflation picked up pace slightly in July, data published on Wednesday showed, but overall price pressures look tame and should not prevent the central bank cutting the policy rate next week with further easing likely late
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Promising start to August for the Swedish crown

BUZZ-COMMENT-Promising start to August for the Swedish crown Aug 1 (Reuters) - A four-day recovery versus the euro and despite a mixed Swedish PMI report for July, there is potential for a trend reversal in EUR/SEK through August. A bearish harami candlestick on July 26 set the ball rolling. The harami reversal signal is made up of two candles, a small real body candle holds within the prior session's much larger real body.
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August might be a better month for the Swedish crown

BUZZ-COMMENT-August might be a better month for the Swedish crown July 30 (Reuters) - For the SEK crown, July has not been a good month as EUR/SEK rallied to a high of 11.7780, 5.65% above the June 12 1.1250 low. However, EUR/SEK looks ripe for a period of adjustment as an overbought condition shows up on the charts. The Riksbank is still expected to cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% in August and there could be scope for a further three cuts before the year is out.
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Stand-out FX option expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option expiries for the week ahead July 12 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some huge strikes worth noting for Friday, July 12 , and for the week ahead. Stand-out EUR/USD strike expiries are on Monday at 1.0800 on 2.1 billion euros, between 1.0815-30 on 3.5 billion euros, 1.0850 on 1.1 billion euros, 1.0895-1.0900 on 4.6 billion euros and between
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Swedish inflation slows in June, paving way for more rate cuts

UPDATE 3-Swedish inflation slows in June, paving way for more rate cuts Headline inflation 1.3% in June, below forecast Lowest figure since mid-2021 Supports Riksbank plans for more rate cuts in H2 Adds analyst comment in paragraph 4, currency reaction, graph By Simon Johnson STOCKHOLM, July 12 (Reuters) - Swedish inflation slowed to its lowest pace in more than three years in June, data published on Friday showed, supporting plans by the central bank to ease policy further after cutting rates i
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Riksbank set for multiple rate cuts

BUZZ-COMMENT-Riksbank set for multiple rate cuts July 3 (Reuters) - There is a good chance Swedish interest rates could end the year a full percentage point below the current 3.75% level as the Riksbank becomes more confident over the inflation path. The minutes from the June policy meeting had more of a dovish tilt than the monetary policy statement and increasing concern for the Swedish labour market points to a series of rate cuts before the year is out.
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Uncertainty looms over Swedish crown's future path

BUZZ-COMMENT-Uncertainty looms over Swedish crown's future path July 3 (Reuters) - Mixed signals on the EUR/SEK chart are clouding the direction for Sweden's crown and this scenario fits with the uncertainty surrounding the next Riksbank rate move. On the daily chart EUR/SEK is supported by the daily kijun-sen, currently 11.3595. Resistance is close to market at 11.4245, the 200-day moving average, but this could be weakened by the 100-day moving average crossing above the slower average.
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead June 28 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some huge strikes worth noting for Friday June 28 and larger strikes for the week ahead. Stand-out EUR/USD strikes expiring on Monday are at 1.0685 on 1.3 billion euros and at 1.0700 on 2.6 billion euros.
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Riksbank's Bunge says inflation risks roughly symmetrical

Riksbank's Bunge says inflation risks roughly symmetrical STOCKHOLM, June 28 (Reuters) - The risks of Swedish inflation overshooting or undershooting are roughly balanced, central bank Deputy Governor Aino Bunge said on Friday. Bunge said there was a risk inflation would be too low ahead and that it would be important to adjust rates if that were the case.
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Pencil in an August rate cut from the Riksbank

BUZZ-COMMENT-Pencil in an August rate cut from the Riksbank June 27 (Reuters) - The Riksbank's June policy meeting delivered a widely expected unchanged rate decision, but the accompanying dovish rhetoric and forecasts were a surprise, and the market is now factoring in an August rate cut. By lowering its interest rate path by more than expected, saying there could be two or three cuts this year, rather than only two, the central bank has increased the probability of an August easing considerabl
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Sweden's Riksbank holds key rate, may cut three times in second half

UPDATE 3-Sweden's Riksbank holds key rate, could speed up cuts this year Riksbank holds rate at 3.75% as expected Sees chance of extra rate cut this year Swedish crown weakens on decision Adds analyst comment in paragraphs 8 and 9 , currency reaction By Simon Johnson STOCKHOLM, June 27 (Reuters) - Sweden's central bank held its key interest rate at 3.75% as expected on Thursday, and said that if inflation prospects remained the same, the policy rate could be cut two or three times during the sec
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Is the Riksbank's vigilance warranted?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Is the Riksbank's vigilance warranted? June 26 (Reuters) - The Riksbank meets on Thursday and is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%. Vigilance over inflation is a key theme for Western European central banks but with the crown on the rise, anchored inflation expectations and a weak labour market, it could be argued that the Riksbank is being overcautious.
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