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US natgas prices slide 2% on lower demand forecasts, storm heads to Florida



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

Sept 24 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2%on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Another factor weighing on gas prices was the latest forecasts for Tropical Storm Helene to miss most of the producing regions in the western and central Gulf of Mexico as it strengthens into a hurricane on Wednesday and hit the Florida Panhandle late Thursday.

Over the past few days, severaloil companies paused some production ahead of Helene.But some firms, likeShell SHEL.L, started restoring oil and gas production as the forecasted storm movements shifted away from their offshore platforms.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.2 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $2.551 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).On Monday, the contract closed at its highest level since June 27.

With front-month gas prices up about 27% over the past five weeks, the premium of futures for November over October NGV24-X24 fell to just 24cents per mmBtu, the lowest since September 2022. October is the current front-month.

Analysts have said gas prices should trade at lower levels during the April-October summer cooling season than the November-March winter heating season since U.S. demand for gas peaks during the winter.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.

But on a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary four-month low of 99.6 bcfd. Analysts, however, noted that preliminary data was often revised later in the day.

Analysts said the recent output reductions were partly due to producers curtailing Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production ahead of Helene and lower flows on aNatural Gas Pipeline Co (NGPL) pipe in Texas after a force majeure event at a compressor.

With milder autumn weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will slide from 98.5 bcfd this week to 96.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have eased to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in September, down from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance.

In other LNG news, a tanker docked for the past month at Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana left by Tuesday morning, according to data provider LSEG.

Energy analysts said that was likely a sign Plaquemines was getting closer to producing and exporting its own LNG.

Week ended Sep 20 Forecast

Week ended Sep 13 Actual

Year ago Sep 20

Five-year average

Sep 20


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+54

+58

+82

+88


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,499

3,445

3,333

3,259


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

7.4%

8.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.62

2.61

2.70

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.65

11.79

11.44

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.21

12.97

13.92

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

27

32

30

54

73

U.S. GFS CDDs

100

103

105

93

76

U.S. GFS TDDs

127

135

135

147

149

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

101.9

102.0

102.4

103.5

96.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.7

7.6

N/A

7.1

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

109.9

109.7

110.0

N/A

103.6

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.2

2.0

2.1

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

6.6

7.1

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

12.6

12.0

12.5

12.8

8.2

U.S. Commercial

4.7

4.8

5.0

4.9

4.9

U.S. Residential

3.9

4.0

4.3

4.0

3.9

U.S. Power Plant

39.9

39.9

36.4

37.0

36.0

U.S. Industrial

21.8

21.9

22.0

21.6

21.7

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.0

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

77.6

77.8

74.8

74.7

80.0

Total U.S. Demand

99.6

98.5

96.4

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

74

74

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

77

77

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Sep 27

Week ended Sep 20

2023

2022

2021

Wind

7

9

10

11

10

Solar

5

5

4

3

3

Hydro

4

5

6

6

7

Other

1

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

46

46

41

38

37

Coal

17

16

17

21

23

Nuclear

18

18

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.40

2.20


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.56

1.15


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.92

2.43


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.56

1.17


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.27

2.05


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.95

1.48


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.33

1.89


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.57

0.55




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.15

0.05



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

34.00

33.00



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

44.00

37.63



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

32.25

29.50


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

75.00

56.50




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

35.00

17.00


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

34.25

15.25




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and David Gregorio

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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