XM tidak memberikan layanan kepada penduduk Amerika Serikat.

Benign CPI data boost rate cut hopes, weigh on Hungarian forint



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Benign CPI data boost rate cut hopes, weigh on Hungarian forint</title></head><body>

By Krisztina Than

BUDAPEST, Sept 10 (Reuters) -Hungary's forint slipped after lower-than-expected inflation data for August rekindled market expectations that the central bank could resume policy easing at its meeting later this month.

The Hungarian and Czech central banks have been the most active among central European peers in easing policy since last year but are beginning to slow or possibly pause their steady rate cuts.

Before deciding to keep rates flat in August, Hungary's central bank had delivered 15 consecutive cuts totalling 1,125 basis points. The main rate stands at 6.75%.

Data on Tuesday kept the option of further cuts open - along with pressure from the government to ease policy more - as it showed year-on-year inflation eased to 3.4% in August from 4.1% in July, coming in below a Reuters poll forecast of 3.6%.

It was the lowest rate since February 2021. But core inflation still came in at 4.6%.

An FX dealer in Budapest said the forint's weakness was mostly due to domestic factors, but a strong dollar did not help either.

"The forint is weaker due to comments from policymakers in the past days on the change expected at the helm of the central bank, plus the August CPI data indicates that the central bank may cut interest rates further, which does not help either," the dealer said.

"This is a multi-factor story, but I would say it is predominantly domestic factors that are weighing on the forint."

Economy Minister Marton Nagy told Inforadio late on Monday that the Hungarian bank had "won the fight with inflation", saying too restrictive a policy would hurt the economy.

The forint EURHUF=, whose weakness in recent months has been a constraint on the central bank, eased 0.1% to 397.40 to the euro by 0730 GMT on Tuesday before regaining some ground, while other currencies in Central Europe firmed slightly.

Czech data showed on Tuesday that inflation stagnated at 2.2% year-on-year last month despite market and central bank expectations of a drop. But analysts said the data would not sour policymakers on more rate cuts.

"We believe the central bank board has space to continue its cycle of rate cuts given the favourable inflation development and still unflattering performance in the economy," Raiffeisen said, forecasting a 25-bp cut at the September meeting and subsequent meetings this year.

The crown EURCZK= slightly backed away from a test of the psychological 25 per euro level after the data, trading weaker on the day.

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= and Romanian leu EURRON= were both little changed.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 0930 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0380

25.0550

+0.07%

-1.34%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

397.4000

397.0000

-0.10%

-3.58%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2755

4.2790

+0.08%

+1.61%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9735

4.9740

+0.01%

+0.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9500

117.0100

+0.05%

+0.25%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1585.62

1588.7500

-0.20%

+12.14%

Budapest

.BUX

72329.29

72075.48

+0.35%

+19.32%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2336.23

2330.89

+0.23%

-0.29%

Bucharest

.BETI

17634.23

17477.86

+0.89%

+14.72%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2820

-0.0050

+105bps

-2bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5170

0.0510

+147bps

+4bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.6960

0.0120

+151bps

+0bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.6930

-0.0250

+246bps

-4bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.1090

0.0300

+306bps

+2bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3320

0.0240

+315bps

+1bps








FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS






3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.85

3.49

3.22

4.33

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.45

5.95

5.37

6.49

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.77

5.39

4.85

5.86

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************











Reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/

Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
</body></html>

Pengungkapan: Entitas XM Group menyediakan layanan khusus eksekusi dan akses ke Fasilitas Trading Online kami, yang memungkinkan Anda untuk melihat dan/atau menggunakan konten yang tersedia pada atau melalui situs, yang tidak untuk mengubah atau memperluas, serta tidak mengubah atau memperluas hal tersebut. Akses dan penggunaan ini selalu sesuai dengan: (i) Syarat dan Ketentuan; (ii) Peringatan Risiko; dan (iii) Pengungkapan Penuh. Oleh karena itu, konten disediakan hanya sebagai informasi umum. Anda juga harus ketahui bahwa konten Fasilitas Trading Online kami bukan sebagai ajakan atau tawaran untuk untuk melakukan transaksi apa pun di pasar finansial. Trading di pasar finansial mana pun melibatkan tingkat risiko yang signifikan pada modal Anda.

Semua materi yang diterbitkan di Fasilitas Trading Online kami hanya untuk tujuan edukasi/informasi dan tidak boleh mengandung nasihat dan rekomendasi finansial, pajak investasi atau trading, catatan harga trading kami, penawaran, permintaan, transaksi dalam instrumen finansial apa pun atau promo finansial untuk Anda yang tidak diminta.

Konten pihak ketiga apa pun, serta konten yang disiapkan oleh XM, seperti opini, berita, riset, analisis, harga, informasi lain atau link ke situs pihak ketiga yang tersedia "sebagaimana adanya", sebagai komentar pasar umum dan bukan menjadi nasihat investasi. Sejauh konten apa pun ditafsirkan sebagai penelitian investasi, Anda harus memperhatikan dan menerima bahwa konten tersebut tidak dimaksudkan dan belum disiapkan sesuai dengan persyaratan hukum yang dirancang untuk mempromosikan kemandirian riset investasi dan dengan demikian akan dianggap sebagai komunikasi pemasaran di bawah hukum dan peraturan yang relevan. Mohon dipastikan bahwa Anda telah membaca dan memahami Notifikasi pada Riset Investasi Non-Independen dan Peringatan Risiko kami mengenai informasi di atas, yang dapat diakses disini.

Peringatan Resiko: Modal Anda beresiko. Produk dengan leverage mungkin tidak cocok bagi semua orang. Silahkan pertimbangkan Pengungkapan Resiko kami.