Zloty inches higher as Polish cenbank chief to give clues on rate outlook
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Sept 5 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were little moved on Thursday as investors were looking ahead to speeches by the governors of the central banks of Poland and Hungary, both scheduled later in the day.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= edged up, adding 0.12% to trade at 4.2710 versus the common currency after the National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main interest rate on hold at 5.75% as expected on Wednesday, and markets firmly focused on any indications of when borrowing costs could start to fall.
Governor Adam Glapinski holds a press conference at 1300 GMT. In July, Glapinski said there would be no rate cuts before 2026, but last month he said it could not be ruled out that easing would start earlier.
"There seems to be no turn of the Governor's mind, so we will probably get only a slightly weaker hawkish tone than we are used to, something between the June and July versions," ING wrote in a note.
"However, markets are on the dovish side with the first full cut priced in for December this year while our economists are expecting the first cut only in the second quarter of next year," they said.
Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= slid 0.06% to 25.0590 per euro.
A Reuters poll on Thursday showed that the Czech crown was expected to lead gains among central Europe's main currencies in the coming year as the economy recovers and interest rate cuts slow.
Data showed on Thursday that Czech retail sales continued to recover, rising an eighth straight month.
"The combination of low inflation and solid nominal wage growth... is creating a favourable environment for a continued recovery in retail sales," Generali Investments CEE chief economist Radomir Jac said.
Hungary's forint EURHUF= firmed 0.11%, trading at 392.60 to the euro ahead of a speech by Central Bank Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy who was scheduled to speak at an annual conference for economists.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1014 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0590 | 25.0440 | -0.06% | -1.43% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 392.6000 | 393.0500 | +0.11% | -2.40% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2710 | 4.2760 | +0.12% | +1.72% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9713 | 4.9705 | -0.02% | +0.06% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9400 | 117.0200 | +0.07% | +0.26% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1597.68 | 1592.4800 | +0.33% | +12.99% |
Budapest | .BUX | 72367.52 | 72243.41 | +0.17% | +19.38% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2411.12 | 2403.12 | +0.33% | +2.91% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17916.52 | 18008.23 | -0.51% | +16.56% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3170 | -0.0210 | +100bps | -2bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.5370 | 0.0090 | +143bps | +0bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7270 | -0.0290 | +150bps | -4bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.7900 | 0.0690 | +247bps | +7bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.1230 | -0.0150 | +301bps | -2bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3310 | -0.0230 | +311bps | -3bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.88 | 3.54 | 3.26 | 4.36 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.56 | 6.14 | 5.69 | 6.50 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.74 | 5.39 | 4.95 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Additional reporting by Karol Badohal and Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Sharon Singleton
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